Daily Killings in Mexico Decline Over a Third In President Sheinbaum, Per Government Figures
The typical figure of per-day homicides monthly in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per new official data. However, security specialists have warned that homicide data might not point to better national safety.
Marked Drop in Daily Averages
Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in November compared with nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the leadership in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the chief of the country’s national safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.
“The outcome in murders that have been recorded during these past months is remarkably significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the smallest amount of murders were documented for any November in the last decade.
Recent Context and Government Strategy
Intense drug cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised operations to combat the trafficking organizations, have led to Mexico’s homicide rate rise sharply in recent years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's national statistics agency.
That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than that of the United States. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security strategy for an ostensibly steeper drop in killings this year.
At a media briefing in August, the President stated: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach works. And we have to continue working at it each day.”
The key elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:
- Bolstering Mexico’s federal guard.
- Advancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
- Enhanced cooperation between government authorities.
Expert Caution and Data Limitations
But, public safety researchers cautioned that focusing solely on homicide numbers to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is especially true in light of the increase in different crimes such as abductions.
“This would be excellent news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just concentrate on the murder numbers and say: ‘Well then, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”
As reported by the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical period the previous year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.
“Statistics on murders is not valid for assessing the situation of violence,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to accurately identify and categorize remains. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to mask violence through abductions.”
Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was also concerning because it could mask days when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.
“Using the daily mean makes surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.
Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress
Where the administration can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were detained between last October and this past November for serious offenses, per official figures. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.
“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.
Persistent Violence and Public Frustration
However notwithstanding these actions, Mexico remains plagued by extreme violence, with a number of states in the grip of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a high-profile killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.
A short time after, thousands of youth demonstrated in the capital and across the nation to express their outrage at graft and cartel violence.
“The administration frames [data] in a manner to construct a picture of safety. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” the analyst remarked.