A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
